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Are we about to pay for a relatively dry year as we enter a run of disturbed weather?

Town Mill, February 2014Town Mill, February 2014In Marlborough the rainfall for the first eleven months of the 2014 totalled 1043mm, which produced in February of that year, after a very wet start, this startling image (right) as the River Kennet breached its banks at Town Mill.  This year the eleven month total is considerably less at 701m and the River Kennet is running much, much lower.

The jet stream seems to have got stuck producing the current disturbed weather and with more rain to come.

Autumn 2015

It has been the driest autumn since 2011 with rainfall totalling 225mm, which is 16mm below the long-term average. My records show that 2006 was the wettest autumn with 401mm and 1985 the driest with just 116mm.

The autumn has been warm with the mean temperature 0.2C above the long-term average. The mean temperature for the three-month period indicates an almost continuous upward trend over the past 20 years, increasing by around 0.3C.

November 2015

The rainfall for the month was 107.4mm that is 16mm above the long-term average with the wettest day producing 13.1mm on November 5 - anything to make Mr Fawkes smile. There were only five totally dry days.

With successive weather fronts crossing the country for most of the month it is not surprising that the mean temperature was 2.5C above the long-term average. It has been the second warmest November since my records began in 1984.

Analysing the records since 1984 there is a slight but definite upward trend in the mean temperature for November over the past 20 years.

The warmest day was on November 6 with a maximum of 15.9C, which was 6C above the average. There were just three days when we had an air frost with a minimum of -2.9C on November 23. This was the second latest date in the autumn for the year's first air frost.

Cloud cover was continuous for many days, which meant that solar energy was well below average and strong sunshine amounted to 16.4 hours compared to 41.4 hours in November 2014.

A major feature of the month was the number of days when we experienced very strong winds with gusts to 44mph on November 17 and nine days with gusts well above 30mph.

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  • Silbury-Sunset---10-06-08-----07
  • IMG 8472
  • Marlborough-2013-04-18 St Peters
  • Town-Hall-2011-05-03 08-
  • IMG 9097